Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
