A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
